Mood of the nation : An integrated statistical approach to household inflation expectations in India
Utkarsha Sakarekarutkarsakarekar1212@gmail.comDepartment of Research & DevelopmentShanti Business SchoolAhmedabad, Gujarat, 380058, India0009-0004-2065-4527View full profile → , *Ganesh PhadCorresponding authorgsphad@gmail.comDepartment of StatisticsMaratha Vidya Prasarak Samaj’s Arts, Science & Commerce CollegeOzar (Mig), Nashik, Maharashtra, 422206, India0000-0003-0409-9266View full profile → , Digambar Uphadedbuphade@gmail.comDepartment of StatisticsMVP Samaj’s K.R.T. Arts, B.H. Commerce and A.M. Science (KTHM) CollegeNashik, Maharashtra, 422002, India0000-0003-2510-0860View full profile →
* Corresponding author · click or hover a name for details
- Received:
- 01 Apr 2026
- Published Online:
- 30 Sep 2026
- Article type:
- Research Article
- Language:
- EN
- Article no.:
- JSMS-1699
- Pages:
- 907–920
Abstract
This study examines household inflation perceptions and expectations in India by utilizing data collected from six rounds (78, 79, 79B, 80, 81, and 81B) of the Inflation Expectations Survey of Households conducted in 2025. Inflation expectations are analyzed across current, three-month, and one-year horizons using balance statistics. The results show that expectations increase with the time horizon and vary across consumption categories, with housing and general prices showing higher expected increases. Significant variation is observed across cities, while demographic factors have limited influence. Multivariate analysis confirms that city is the most important determinant. The distributional findings show that the further out the time frame is the greater the uncertainty, and challenges in anchoring inflation expectations.
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References
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