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 Journal of Statistics and Management Systems cover
Hybrid ·Peer-reviewed·ISSN (Online): 2169-0014·ISSN (Print): 0972-0510

Monthly Journal: Publishes peer-reviewed aticles on theoretical and applied statistics and management systems, expoloring industrial statistics, actuarial and decision sciences.

Issues up to 2022 co-published with and available at:Taylor & Francis Online
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Open Access Research Article

Age-structured model with varied contact patterns and vaccination of COVID-19 in Liaoning Province, China

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* Corresponding author · click or hover a name for details

pp. 1525–1539Vol. 27Issue 8November 2024DOI: 10.47974/JSMS-1011XML
Received:
09 Mar 2022
Accepted:
13 Jul 2022
Published Online:
18 Dec 2024
Article type:
Research Article
Language:
EN
Article no.:
JSMS-1011
Pages:
1525–1539

Abstract

Measuring age heterogeneity and the role of vaccines in the epidemic, an age-structured SVEIHR model is developed to simulate the propagation of the third outbreak of COVID-19 in Liaoning Province. Based on the actual data, parameters are obtained by the MCMC method and used in numerical analysis and the calculation of the basic reproduction number for different contact patterns and vaccine efficacy. The appropriate method of epidemic management obtained in this paper is to conduct self-quarantine first, and then resume work under the management policy, which can productively halt the epidemic. Besides, it is found that vaccination can effectively alleviate the epidemic situation. Specifically, the more effective the vaccine is, the fewer people will become infected.

Keywords

Subject Classifications

93C1592B05

References

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