Mathematical models to optimize pandemic spread and control strategies in public health management

Bhardwaj, Uma; Navale, Shirish Jaysing; Chanchlani, Akshita S.; Murtuza, S. D.; Dey, Debarshita; Khudaynazarov, Egambergan; Joshi, Navneet

doi:10.47974/JIM-2494

Open Access Research Article

Mathematical models to optimize pandemic spread and control strategies in public health management

Uma Bhardwajvc@niu.edu.inDepartment of Biotechnology and MicrobiologyNoida International UniversityGreater Noida, Uttar Pradesh, 203201, IndiaView full profile → , ^*Shirish Jaysing NavaleCorresponding authorsjnavale@aissmscoe.comDepartment of Mechanical EngineeringAISSMS College of EngineeringPune, Maharashtra, 411001, IndiaView full profile → , Akshita S. Chanchlaniakshita.s.chanchlani@gmail.comDepartment of Computer EngineeringDr. Vishwanath Karad MIT World Peace UniversityPune, Maharashtra, 411038, IndiaView full profile → , S. D. Murtuzaimgeminite@gmail.comDepartment of Computer EngineeringDr. Vishwanath Karad MIT World Peace UniversityPune, Maharashtra, 411038, IndiaView full profile → , Debarshita Deyebarshita.dey@symlaw.ac.inSymbiosis Law School Pune (SLS-P)Symbiosis Centre for Advanced Legal Studies and Research (SCALSAR), Symbiosis International (Deemed University)Pune, Maharashtra, 411014, IndiaView full profile → , Egambergan Khudaynazarove.xudaynazarov@mamunedu.uzDepartment of General Professional SciencesMamun UniversityKhiva, 220900, Uzbekistan0009-0000-1210-8113View full profile → , Navneet Joshinavneet.nimt@gmail.comDepartment of MathematicsBhimtal CampusGraphic Era Hill UniversityNainital, Uttarakhand, 263136, IndiaView full profile →

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pp. 597–606Vol. 29Issue 3March 2026DOI: 10.47974/JIM-2494XML

Received:: 01 Mar 2025
Published Online:: 18 Mar 2026
Article type:: Research Article
Language:: EN
Article no.:: JIM-2494
Pages:: 597–606

Abstract

This paper presents mathematical models that may be applied to enhance the management of the health of the population and prevent pandemics. It is based on compartmental models such as SEIR and control variables such as the vaccine, quarantine, and social isolation to model disease spread and the effectiveness of interventions. Dynamic programming and optimal control theory are optimisation techniques that are applied to identify the optimal reaction plans. The outcomes of the simulation indicate that there are significant decreases in the rate of reduction of the number of infections and consumption of resources. The proposed models provide the lawmakers with practical information that can be applied to them in times of outbreak and pandemic scenarios to make timely and data-driven decisions.

Keywords

Pandemic modeling Optimal control Public health strategy SEIR model

Subject Classifications

31A1003C98

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