A comparison between the brand awareness and logistic prediction models for predicting election results

Chen, Yin-Tai; Wang, Yu-Lan; Lee, Chin-Ho; Chen, Rong-Fang

doi:10.47974/JSMS-1215

Open Access Research Article

A comparison between the brand awareness and logistic prediction models for predicting election results

^*Yin-Tai ChenCorresponding authorgeld.rt.chen@yahoo.com.twDepartment of Business Administration School of Business Zhengzhou Sias University No. 168 Renmin RoadXinzheng City, Henan, 451150, ChinaView full profile → , Yu-Lan Wangyulan.duker@gmail.comCollege of Teacher Education Weifang University of Science and Technology No. 1299 Jinguang StreetShouguang City, Shandong, 262799, ChinaView full profile → , Chin-Ho Leez6611001@gmail.comSchool of Economics and Management Weifang University of Science and Technology No. 1299 Jinguang StreetShouguang City, Shandong, 262799, ChinaView full profile → , Rong-Fang Chenafang928@gmail.comSchool of Economics and Management Weifang University of Science and Technology No. 1299 Jinguang StreetShouguang City, Shandong, 262799, ChinaView full profile →

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pp. 399–423Vol. 28Issue 3April 2025DOI: 10.47974/JSMS-1215XML

Received:: 14 Feb 2023
Published Online:: 08 Apr 2025
Article type:: Research Article
Language:: EN
Article no.:: JSMS-1215
Pages:: 399–423

Abstract

Candidates involved in the elections normally formulate their own strategies through the method of opinion polls, and consequently it is extremely important if a prediction model can effectively compute and provide their supporting rate. A suitable election prediction model should be available and implemented in full practice to satisfy the critical necessity for obtaining a result with accuracy, stability, and simplicity. By using the opinion polls gathered from the elections held in Tainan City, Taiwan, with the assistance of the brand awareness prediction and logistic prediction models frequently adopted in elections, this study tests out the validity of these aforementioned two prediction methods, in terms of the three practical necessities referenced above. The results of this research may imply that the forecasted outcomes obtained from both aforementioned models are very promising in terms of the accuracy and stability. However, the brand awareness prediction model will be better if the simplicity of the calculation process is the key objective.

Keywords

Voter’s request indicator Evoked set Brand awareness Logistic prediction model Flow-in and out

Subject Classifications

62D05

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