TARU PUBLICATIONS
 Journal of Statistics and Management Systems cover
Open Access ·Peer-reviewed·ISSN (Online): 2169-0014·ISSN (Print): 0972-0510

Monthly Journal: Publishes peer-reviewed aticles on theoretical and applied statistics and management systems, expoloring industrial statistics, actuarial and decision sciences.

Issues up to 2022 co-published with and available at:Taylor & Francis Online
submissions@tarupublications.com
Open Access Research Article

Investigating trends in traffic count data utilizing exploratory data analysis and regression analysis

* , , ,

* Corresponding author · click or hover a name for details

pp. 535–568Vol. 27Issue 3March 2024DOI: 10.47974/JSMS-964XML
Received:
06 Oct 2021
Accepted:
17 May 2022
Published Online:
30 Mar 2024
Article type:
Research Article
Language:
EN
Article no.:
JSMS-964
Pages:
535–568

Abstract

To decipher and understand data collected for any model or decision-making, a statistical investigation into a dataset is necessary to generate every unearthed information in the data through visual means or a summary of the dataset’s patterns. Statistical analysis is utilized to test: normality, randomness, outliers, the relationship between the dependent and the independent variables, and possible temporal and spatial spread in the dataset. In this study, the annual average daily traffic (AADT) dataset obtained from Montana, Minnesota, and Washington were subjected to statistical investigations using descriptive statistics, regression analysis, and hypothesis testing to understand the data patterns. The results generated from exploring the various techniques indicated that the data acquired were generally random. However, the data’s orderliness is not random. The data values had nearly no relationship with the collection locations, thus requiring a model that can generate a precise fit for better decision-making. Data skewness varied from slight to high. Therefore, data ranged from approximating normality and nonnormality with high outliers.

Keywords

Subject Classifications

62J0562C05

References

[1] AASHTO. Guidelines for Geometric Design of Low-Volume Roads. AASHTO Issues Second Edition of Low-Volume Roads Guidelines – AASHTO Journal (2019).
[2] Albright, D., History of Estimating and Evaluating Annual Traffic Volume Statistics. Transportation Research Record 1305, pp 103-107 (1991).
[3] Apronti, D.,Ksaibati, K., Gerow, K. and Hepner, J.J., Estimating traffic volume on Wyoming low volume roads using linear and logistic regression methods. Journal of Traffic Transportation. Engineering. (English Edition). Vol. 3 (6), pp 493-506 (2016).
[4] Anderson, F., (2016). What is the relationship between R-squared and p-value in a regression? Communications on Research gate. Harrisburg University of Science and Technology (6/6/2016).
[5] Balakrishnan, S., and Wasserman, L., Hypothesis testing for densities and high-dimensional multinomials: Sharp local minimax rates. The Annals of Statistics. Vol. 47(4), pp. 1893-1927 (2019).
[6] Castro-Neto, M. M., Jeong, Y., Jeong, M. K., and L. Han, AADT prediction using support vector regression with data-dependent parameters. Expert Systems with Applications. Vol. 36(2), pp. 2979-2986 (2009). DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2008.01.073. 
[7] Chen, P., Hu, S., Shen, Q., Lin, H., and Xie, C., Estimating Traffic Volume for Local Streets with Imbalanced Data. Transportation Research Record. Vol. 2673(3) pp 598–610 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198119833347.
[8] Chen, Y., Yu, J., Khan, S., Spatial sensitivity analysis of multi-criteria weights in GIS-based land suitability evaluation. Environmental Modelling & Software. Vol. 25(12), pp. 1582-1591 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.06.001.
[9] Cognos Analytics (2021). https://www.ibm.com/docs/en/cognos-analytics/11.1.0?topic=dashboards-statistical-tests.
[10] Cools, M., Moons, E., and Wets, G., Investigating Effect of Holidays on Daily Traffic Counts: Time Series Approach Transportation Research Record. Journal of the Transportation Research Board. 2019 (1), pp 22-31 (2007). https://doi.org/10.3141/2019-04.
[11] Cools, M., Moons, E., and Wets, G., Investigating the Variability in Daily Traffic Counts Through Use of ARIMAX and SARIMAX 
Models Assessing the Effect of Holidays on Two Site Locations Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2136, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., pp. 57–66 (2009). https://doi.org/10.3141/2136-07.
[12] Dul, J., Van der Laan, E., and Kuik, R., A Statistical Significance Test for Necessary Condition Analysis. Organizational Research Methods. Vol. 23(2) 385-395 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1177/1094428118795272.
[13] Dushoff, J., Kain, M. P., and Bolker, B. M., I can see clearly now: Reinterpreting statistical significance. Methods in Ecology and Evolution (2018). https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.13159.
[14] Eom, J. K., Park, M. S., Heo, T-Y, and Huntsinger, L.F., Improving the Prediction of Annual Average Daily Traffic for Nonfreeway Facilities by Applying a Spatial Statistical Method, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board (2006). https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198106196800103.
[15] Fricker Jr., R. D., Burke, K., Han, X., and Woodall, W.H., Assessing the Statistical Analyses Used in Basic and Applied Social Psychology After Their p-Value Ban. The American Statistician, 73 : sup1, pp. 374-384 (2019), https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2018.153789.
[16] Fushiki, T., and Maeda, T., Nonresponse Bias Adjustment in Regression Analysis. Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice. 14 (20) (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42519-020-0086-z.
[17] Han, C., and Song, S., A Review of Some Main Models for Traffic Flow Forecasting. Proc. 2003 IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems., Vol. 1., pp. 216–219 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1109/ITSC.2003.1251951.
[18] Jato-Espino, D., Spatiotemporal statistical analysis of the Urban Heat Island effect in a Mediterranean region, Sustainable Cities and Society, 46, 101427 (2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101427.
[19] Jin, S-B., and Lee, J.-W., Study on Accident Prediction Models in Urban Railway Casualty Accidents Using Logistic Regression Analysis Model. Journal of The Korean Society for Railway. Vol.20 (4). pp. 482-490 (2017). http://dx.doi.org/10.7782/JKSR.2017.20.4.482.
[20] Kleijnen, J. P. C., Sensitivity analysis and optimization of system dynamics models: Regression analysis and statistical design of experiments System Dynamics Review, Vol. 11(4), pp. 275-288 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1002/SDR.4260110403, Corpus ID: 62709384. 
[21] Liu, H., Lee, M., and Khattak, A. J., Updating Annual Average Daily Traffic Estimates at Highway-Rail Grade Crossings with Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression, Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 2673(10) 105–117 (2019), https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198119844976.
[22] McClave, J., and Sincich, T., Statistics, 13th Edition. Pearson (2017).
[23] Minitab Express™ Support., 2019. https://support.minitab.com/en-us/minitab-express/1/help-and-how-to/modeling-statistics/regression/how-to/simple-regression/interpret-the-results/all-statistics-and-graphs/#p-value-regression.
[24] Minitab Express™ Support., (2019). https://support.minitab.com/en-us/minitab-express/1/help-and-how-to/basic-statistics/summary-statistics/descriptive-statistics/interpret-the-results/key-results/#step-2-describe-the-center-of-your-data.
[25] Minitab Express™ Support., (2019). https://support.minitab.com/en-us/minitab-express/1/help-and-how-to/modeling-statistics/regression/how-to/simple-regression/interpret-the-results/all-statistics-and-graphs/.
[26] Minitab Express™ Support., (2019). https://support.minitab.com/en-us/minitab-express/1/help-and-how-to/basic-statistics/inference/how-to/one-sample/runs-test/before-you-start/data-considerations/.
[27] Minitab Express™ Support., (2019). https://support.minitab.com/en-us/minitab-express/1/help-and-how-to/basic-statistics/inference/how-to/one-sample/runs-test/interpret-the-results/key-results/.
[28] Mishra, P., Pandey, C.M., Singh, U., Gupta, A., Sahu, C., and Keshri, A., Descriptive statistics and normality tests for statistical data. Annals Cardiac Anesthesia, Vol. 22(1), pp. 67-72 (2019). https://doi.org/10.4103/aca.ACA_157_18.
[29] Niu, M., Zhen, H., Wan, C., and Xi, Z., Statistical Regression Analysis Study on Anorectal Disease Predisposing Factors, 6th International Conference on Management, Education, Information and Control (MEICI 2016). 
[30] PennDOT Traffic Count Policy, . Dirt, Gravel, and Low Volume Road Maintenance Program (DGLVRP) Traffic Count Policy SCC approved https://www.dirtandgravel.psu.edu/sites/default/files/PA%20Program%20Resources/Low%20Volume%20Roads/LVR_Traffic_Count_Policy.pdf.
[31] Rúa, M.O.B., Aragón, A.J.D., Baena, P.B., and Botero, J.D.O., Statistical analysis to establish an ignition scenario based on extrinsic and intrinsic variables of coal seams that affect spontaneous combustion, International Journal of Mining Science and Technology. 29, pp. 731–737 (2019).
[32] Raza, O., Mansournia, M. A., Foroushani, A. R., and Holakouie-Naieni, K., Geographically Weighted Regression Analysis: A Statistical Method to Account for Spatial Heterogeneity, Archives of Iranian Medicine, Vol. 22(3), pp: 155-160 (2019).
[33] Sharma, S. C., Gulati, B.M. and Rizak, S. N., Statewide traffic volume studies and precision of AADT estimates.” Journal of Transportation Engineering, 122 (6), 430-439 (1996).
[34] Sharma, S.C., Lingras. P., Xu, F., and Kilburn, P., Application of Neural Networks to Estimate AADT On Low-Volume Roads. Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol.127 (5), pp. 426-432 (2001).
[35] Staats, W. N., (2016). Estimation of Annual Average Daily Traffic On Local Roads In Kentucky. Theses And Dissertations--Civil Engineering, 36, https://uknowledge.uky.edu/ce_etds/36, http://dx.doi.org/10.13023/ETD.2016.066.
[36] Stolwijk, A. M., Straatman, H., and Zielhuis, G. A., Studying seasonality by using sine and cosine functions in regression analysis, Journal of Epidemiol Community Health, 53, pp. 235–238 (1999).
[37] Taylor, C., (2020). “What Is the Interquartile Range Rule?” ThoughtCo, thoughtco.com/what-is-the-interquartile-range-rule-3126244.
[38] Tobler, W.R., Estimation of Attractivities from Interactions. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 11(2), pp 121-127 (1979). https://doi.org/10.1068/a110121.
[39] Tsapakis, I., Schneider IV, W. H. Nichols, A. P., A Bayesian analysis of the effect of estimating annual average daily traffic for heavy-duty trucks using training and validation datasets. Transportation Planning and Technology, Vol. 36 (2), pp. 201-217 (2013), https://doi.org/10.1080/03081060.2013.770944.
[40] UCI Department of statistics, https://www.stat.uci.edu/what-is-statistics/.
[41] Van Arem, B., Kirby, H. R., Van Der Vlist, M. J. M., and Whittaker, J. C., Recent Advances and Applications in the Field of Short-Term Traffic Forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting. Vol. 13(1), pp. 1–12 (1997).
[42] Weare, B.C., A Statistical Study of the Relationship between Ocean Surface Temperatures and the Indian Monsoon. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 36 (12), pp. 2279-2291 (1979), https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1979)036<2279:ASSOTR>2.0.CO;2.
[43] Wright, R. E., Logistic regression. In L. G. Grimm & P. R. Yarnold (Eds.), Reading and understanding multivariate statistics. American Psychological Association, pp. 217–244 (1995).
[44] Ying, G-S.,Maguire, M. G., Glynn, R., and B.Rosner. Tutorial on Biostatistics: Linear Regression Analysis of Continuous Correlated Eye Data. Ophthalmic Epidemiology, Vol. 24(2) (2017), https://doi.org/10.1080/09286586.2016.1259636.
[45] Raza, O., Mansournia, M. A., Foroushani, A. R., and Holakouie-Naieni, K., Geographically Weighted Regression Analysis: A Statistical Method to Account for Spatial Heterogeneity, Arch Iran Med. 22(3), pp 155-160 (2019). PMID: 31029072, Scopus ID: 85065421618, http://www.aimjournal.ir/Article/aim-3740.

Views: 239Downloads: 44Citations: 0