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Journal of Information and Optimization Sciences cover
Open Access ·Peer-reviewed·ISSN (Online): 2169-0103·ISSN (Print): 0252-2667

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Monthly Journal: Publishes theoretical and applied research on topics in information and optimization sciences.

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Open Access Research Article

Forecasting stochastic consumer portability visitation pattern in fair price shops of India

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pp. 439–454Vol. 44Issue 3April 2023DOI: 10.47974/JIOS-1364XML
Published Online:
11 Aug 2023
Article type:
Research Article
Language:
EN
Article no.:
JIOS-1364
Pages:
439–454

Abstract

In India, the Public Distribution System (PDS) is a critical tool for accomplishing the aim of “Zero Hunger”. Despite the enormous resources used, PDS has several inefficiencies that are caused by the monopoly of agents engaged in last-mile grain supply. Various state governments in India have been employing portability as an innovative solution to address this problem. In this article, we examined a huge-scale data on the deployment of portable beneficiaries arriving in a particular FPS of Kerala state in India over three years. A comparison is made between Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method which makes forecasts in univariate data and ARIMA with exogenous variables called ARIMAX. We followed Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) as the accuracy performance measure of the models and observed that the ARIMAX model outperforms the ARIMA model with the least forecasting errors.

Keywords

Subject Classifications

62M1091B8437M10

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