<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<article article-type="Research Article">
  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">journal-of-statistics-and-management-systems</journal-id>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title> Journal of Statistics and Management Systems</journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
      <issn publication-format="electronic">2169-0014</issn>
      <issn publication-format="print">0972-0510</issn>
      <publisher>
        <publisher-name>Taru Publications</publisher-name>
      </publisher>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.47974/JSMS-1432</article-id>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Calculating sensitivity, specificity and predictive values for coronavirus tests</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
          <name>
            <surname>Kalucha</surname>
            <given-names>Geeta</given-names>
          </name>
          <aff>Department of Mathematics, P.G.D.A.V. College, University of Delhi, New Delhi, 110065, India</aff>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Khanduja</surname>
            <given-names>Gaurika</given-names>
          </name>
          <aff>Data and Analytics, Policy Unit, Essex County Council, Chelmsford, CM1 1GG, United Kingdom</aff>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Kalucha</surname>
            <given-names>Anhad</given-names>
          </name>
          <aff>Department of Economics, University of California San Diego, California, 92093, U.S.A.</aff>
        </contrib>
      </contrib-group>
      <volume>28</volume>
      <issue>5</issue>
      <fpage>959</fpage>
      <lpage>969</lpage>
      <pub-date date-type="pub">
        <day>08</day>
        <month>07</month>
        <year>2025</year>
      </pub-date>
      <abstract>
        <p>The accurate diagnosis of COVID-19 is essential for effective disease management and control. This study evaluates the performance of diagnostic tests using sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values along with their 95% confidence intervals (CI), applying Bayes’ Rule to estimate the probability of an individual being COVID-positive based on specific symptoms. Data were collected during the second wave of COVID-19 in India, focusing on the National Capital Region (NCR), India, through a survey conducted via Google Forms. The study identifies common symptoms to predict COVID-19 and calculates the probability of a person being COVID-positive if they exhibit these symptoms. Furthermore, it demonstrates the utility of Bayesian methods [1][2] in enhancing diagnostic accuracy by synthesizing results from the tests. These findings underscore the importance of accurate diagnostic tools and symptom recognition in managing COVID-19 and provide valuable insights into the progression of the pandemic during its second wave in India.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>Sensitivity</kwd>
        <kwd>Specificity</kwd>
        <kwd>Predictive values</kwd>
        <kwd>COVID-19</kwd>
        <kwd>Diagnostic tests</kwd>
        <kwd>Bayes’ theorem</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
      <custom-meta-group>
        <custom-meta>
          <meta-name>access</meta-name>
          <meta-value>open</meta-value>
        </custom-meta>
        <custom-meta>
          <meta-name>retracted</meta-name>
          <meta-value>no</meta-value>
        </custom-meta>
      </custom-meta-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
</article>
